Trump’s impact on European policy: right -wing up and rejected liberals

If this last weekend in European policy is an indicator of anything, it is that “the Trump effect” is real and that its reverberations are unpredictable.

On Sunday, three countries of the European Union have held elections – Romania, Poland and Portugal – the results cannot show a clear trend for the future of European policy. The elections, however, indicated the growing influence of the American president on the continent.

The disparate responses of voters in the three countries – and the absence of any decisive victory for a single party or candidate in Portugal or Poland – suggests that the political polarization that has slipped the United States over the past decade is a global trend, not simply American.

As for whether President Donald Trump and the “Make America Great Again” movement swirling around him can establish European avatars, the question remains open.

“I do not know if I have a firm response,” a official of the European Council for Foreign Relations and his office in his Paris office told ABC. “For the moment, we all monitor what is happening and how this influence can be established.”

“It’s very early,” added Belin. “This is an ongoing phenomenon.”

Although it is not clear what will be the extent of Trump’s impact on European policy, Belin said that the impact was “stronger” than two years ago.

The influence of Trump – indirect and direct – gave populist movements like the Germany’s alternative party for Germany, the nationalist party and the nationalist justice (worse) and the far -right party of Portugal, a clear boost, obvious during the last elections in each country.

“If I have to compare myself two years ago, for example, it is stronger, it is more united, it inspires a ton of populist nationalist leaders in Europe,” said Belin. “It becomes stronger. This is the direction in which he is going at the moment.”

The wave of grievances that transported Trump to the oval office twice is not just an American phenomenon and manifests itself differently in individual countries. The concerns concerning globalization, immigration, inequalities, the cost of living, low economic growth rates, progressivism and national identity are almost universal in the Western democratic world.

Trump has seized these conditions in the United States and the right-wing leaders in Europe seek to do the same.

Elections Week in Europe

The results of this week’s elections in Romania, Poland and Portugal suggest, however, that the translation of Trumpism in European political languages ​​remains incomplete.

In Romania, voters have opted for the pro-Europe, pro-nato and pro-unit platform of the mayor of Bucharest, Nicusor Dan. Dan won with around 54% of the vote.

Dan’s opponent – Trump’s supporter, George Simion, who courted the Maga movement and even visited the United States during his campaign – failed, although he has sworn to continue “our fight for freedom and our big values ​​as well as other patriots, sovereigns and conservatives from all over the world”.

In Poland, the presidential elections saw the liberal mayor of Warsaw, Rafal Trzaskowski, winning an unexpected victory in the first round with around 31% of the votes, beating the right -wing rival Karol Nawrocki – which was personally approved by Trump – who had 29.5% of the votes.

The two men will go into the second voting round on June 1, hoping to attract voters from other minor candidates, including a significant block which voted for the Brandon de Far Right Slawomir Mentzen, which arrived third with 14.8%.

Piotr Buras, a member of senior policy at the ECFR at the head of his Warsaw office, told ABC News that Trump had taken advantage of the election.

Nawrocki has been formulated as the candidate adapted to Trump, as well as his supporters in the Law and Justice party, criticizing the Civic Platform Party of Trzaskowski and Prime Minister Donald Tusk for having pretended to be underground Polon-American relations.

“We used to have a national consensus on America,” said Buras, with generally warm voters at the idea of ​​close links with Washington, DC now, because of this ideological fracture in Poland, because of the United States and because of Trump’s approach in Europe, Poland is suddenly divided on how to proceed to America, “he added.

In Portugal, on the other hand, the far-right party of Chega obtained a record share of 22.6% of the vote, opens the long-standing bipartite domination of the political scene of the country even if it could not revise the democratic alliance of the center-right in power.

“I will not stop before becoming the Prime Minister of Portugal,” said Chega chief Andre Ventura – who was one of foreign politicians invited to the second inauguration of Trump.

Make Europe great again?

Such confidence in defeat can be supported by solid foundations, populist parties and candidates deposit in Europe. Through the continent, far -right groups win historically important pieces of the electorate and dominate political debates, even without ensuring the reins of power.

In the United Kingdom, the right reform party recorded an astonishing performance in the local elections in May, winning hundreds of council seats and leaving the leader Nigel Farage – well known for his comfortable relationship with Trump and the Maga movement – to declare the end of the traditional domination of the two British parts.

During the legislative elections in February in February, the extreme right alternative for the German party (AFD) converted years of growing popularity to gain around 21% of the votes and become the second party of the Bundestag.

US vice-president JD Vance made his first trip abroad in his new position in Germany in February, shortly before the elections, speaking during the Munich security conference on February 14.

In his speech concerning the annual security conference, Vance criticized Europe for hampering freedom of expression, suggesting that the conference’s decision to ban AFD members to assist was a form of censorship.

“In Great Britain and through Europe, freedom of expression, I fear that, retired,” said Vance. “I believe that rejecting people, rejecting their concerns, or, even worse, closing the media, closing the elections or preventing people from the political process does not protect anything. In fact, it is the surest way to destroy democracy.” Many political analysts considered Vance’s remarks as a tacit AFD approval from the Trump administration.

And in France, President Emmanuel Macron has so far retained the persistent challenge of the presidency of the far -right leader Marine Le Pen and the National Rally, but he could not prevent the party from becoming the largest of the National Assembly in 2024. Only a trembling minority government kept the party outside the Prime Minister’s office.

The insurgent parties coordinate. The leaders were increasingly attracted to American conservative events, such as the conservative political action conference – whose very first European episode was held in Budapest, Hungary, in 2022.

And this year, right -handers gathered for the Make Europe Great Again conference in Madrid in February, organized by the Far -right Vox party in Spain.

Buras noted rumors that vice-president JD Vance could even attend a CPAC event scheduled in Poland at the end of May, in what could only be interpreted as a demonstration of support in Nawrocki. The event raises the prospect of “almost American interference, or at least influencing the United States,” said Buras.

You are blueback

Trump is just as conflicting abroad as he was at home. Indeed, the surveys systematically indicate that many European voters are skeptical, disturbed by or downright hostile to the American president.

There is therefore no guarantee that an association Maga will put foreign populists in power. Recent elections in Canada and Australia, for example, saw the parties in the center-left ensuring the victory against the conservative opponents that they sought to dirty the Trumpian.

Trump’s return to the White House “awakened anti-populist or anti-nationalist movements,” said Belin. “It gives them a leaf. … You want to mobilize your electorate and use the United States of Donald Trump as a kind of scarecrow – the mobilization effect goes in two directions.”

“He feeds the extremist base and he therefore excites a lot of people, but that also feeds the other side and he is also scary in the middle,” said Belin.